Mid TN Weather By Zman

SEVERE WX RADAR LOOP FROM SUPER TUESDAY STORM

2008-02-10T12:48:00.000-08:00

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY

2008-02-04T18:03:00.000-08:00

A severe weather outbreak is likely tonight through tomorrow from the eastern Southern Plains east to the Mississippi River Valley (Southern IL southward). The models have been trending slower and slower with this system with each consecutive run, with the WRF now forecasting the dryline to cross the I-35 corridor late tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Therefore, the severe weather threat for today will hold off until after dark when the upper-level support arrives. Beginning early tomorrow afternoon, or even late tonight, the threat for tornadoes will increase dramatically over Northeast TX, East OK, and AR as supercells become surface-based. Given 0-1 km helicity values of 200+ m2/s2 over the entire warm sector, these tornadoes could be strong and long-track (especially with the fast storm motions). Selected WRF forecast panels for 00z tomorrow are displayed below.

As is commonly the case with this type of event, the core of the LLJ and the best low-level shear will be slightly east of the dryline and the best instability, as can be seen in the CAPE and 850 mb forecasts above. However, this area still has little or no capping inversion despite lesser CAPE, and is still supportive of strong tornadoes. A likely scenario for tomorrow's severe weather event is the development of two bands of supercells: one over Arkansas and northern Louisiana along a pre-frontal confluence line early in the afternoon, and a second along the dryline further west across eastern Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas. The eastern supercells will likely have the highest potential of producing long-track strong tornadoes given the very high 0-1 km helicity values, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out along the dryline as well. The dryline storms will also move rapidly eastward into the higher low-level shear as the day progresses, anyway, so either target seems logical from a storm chasing perspective

A moderate risk was issued last night by the Storm Prediction Center in their Day 2 Outlook over the southern MS River Valley and eastward, but this area will definitely be shifted significantly west in the next outlook -- probably including most of AR and maybe even Eastern OK and Northeast TX. We'll definitely be chasing this event, and will keep you updated as more model runs become available!

TUESDAY EVENT LOOKING VERY INTERESTING

2008-02-03T19:32:00.000-08:00

Picture what happened last week only now picture it with SuperCell Thunderstorms capable of producing Tornadoes and Large hail Before the Squall Line even hits. This is what we are looking at for This Tuesday Folks. As Much as I hate to say Tornadoes they are quite possible. Now is the time to review your severe wx plan. Stay tuned on Tuesday to Radio or TV. I will have a detailed report tomorrow evening with Helocity values Cape Values and all the info needed to weather the Storm..

TUESDAYS SEVERE WX OUTLOOK

2008-02-03T12:55:00.001-08:00

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA/AR/SERN MO EWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND
THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH 06/12Z. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WINDS...INCLUDING A SSWLY H8 JET IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND H5 FLOW WELL
IN EXCESS OF 100 KT IN THE JET CORE AND AS HIGH AS 90 KT ATOP THE
WARM SECTOR.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF ERN OK SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 06/12Z.

...LA/AR/SERN MO/OH VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THIS REGION.

STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
MAINTAINS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
AS FAR N AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/. WHILE STORMS ARE
FORECAST WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- BOTH WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWS ALONG
THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL AS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE. THEREFORE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED --
WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST
NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE OH VALLEY.

WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AS FRONT APPROACHES AFTER DARK...GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS MAY SUPPORT A PERSISTENT SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HOW COLD DOES THIS LOOK???

2008-01-27T18:14:00.001-08:00

Today in Weather History

2008-01-27T14:46:00.000-08:00

Welcome to Today In Weather History for Sunday, January 27, 2008.
On this day in weather history ..

1772 - The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1966 - Oswego, NY, was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Residents of Chicago, IL, began to dig out from a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum)

1989 - The last half of January was bitterly cold over most of Alaska. Nearly thirty stations established all-time record low temperatures. On this date Tanana reported a low of -76 degrees. Daily highs of -66 degrees were reported at Chandalar Lake on the 22nd, and at Ambler on the 26th. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm moving into the western U.S. produced 13 inches of snow at Daggett Pass NV, and 16 inches in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Reno NV, and wind gusts in Oregon exceeded 80 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The nation got a breather from winter storms, however, cold arctic air settled into the southeastern U.S. Hollywood FL reported a record low reading of 39 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Low pressure in north central Alaska continued to direct air across northern Siberia and the edges of the Arctic Circle into the state. The temperature at Fairbanks remained colder than 40 degrees below zero for the eighth day in a row. Lows of 68 below at Galena, 74 below at McGrath, and 76 below at Tanana, were new records for the date. Wind chill readings were colder than 100 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to the northwestern U.S., and more heavy snow to some of the higher elevations. The series of vigorous cold fronts crossing the area between the 23rd and the 27th of the month produced up to 60 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Month-to-date snowfall at Boston Logan International Airport totaled 43.1 inches, making January the snowiest month on record.

nws discussion

2008-01-27T14:31:00.001-08:00

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW
GFS GUIDANCE INTO THE MID 20S AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EWD THRU THE
GULF STATES. SLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPS IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PUSH BACK INTO THE MID STATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY FROZEN
PRECIP EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WELL NORTH IN THE GREAT LAKES.

SFC RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH SELY FLOW
RETURNING LATE WED NGT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WED NGT AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MIDSTATE ON THU EVE.
RAIN AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...
GFS PROG INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE GULF COAST...THUS WOULD EXPECT ONLY ELEVATED THUNDER.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...THUS NO
EXPECTATION(BASED ON CURRENT PROGS) OF FROZEN PRECIP. SFC RIDGE
MOVES IN WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH SAT NGT.

A new Storm On Tuesday

2008-01-27T06:41:00.000-08:00

A Stray Elevated Tstorm Poss on Tues. Typical Frontal passage with SW Winds 15-25mph Followed by NW Winds 25-35mph.. A Slight Chance of a Flurry or 2 after the Front Passes but not your classic snowy setup.. Almost Identical System on friday.

This is going to sound extremely negative

2008-01-15T04:29:00.000-08:00

Every run I see looks warmer and warmer. Its depressing watching our once extremely promising forecast disappear before our eyes. I wouldn't be surprised if we just get a cold rain out of this. I really hope I'm wrong but I'm not happy with what I see on the model runs. Even the once confident NWS is back tracking.

TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY SUNDAY JAN 13!!!

2008-01-13T20:05:00.000-08:00

On this day in ..

1862 - Flooding in California, known as the “Nochian Flood,” produced a vast sea in the Sacramento Valley. San Francisco, CA had a total rainfall for the month of 24.36 inches.
1886 - Kansas was struck without warning by a severe blizzard. As many as one hundred people were killed along with almost eighty percent of the 1ivestock in the state.
1888 - Fort Keough, MT recorded a temperature of -65F, a reading which would stand as a record for the continental U.S. for sixty six years.
1903 - A tropical cyclone struck the Society Islands in the South Pacific, causing a storm surge as high as forty feet. One thousand people perished. .
1912 - Maryland recorded its coldest temperature ever, (-40F) at Oakland.
1913 - The temperature at Rapid City, SD rose sixty four degrees in fourteen hours.
1937 - The Ohio River floods covered most of the town of Jeffersonville, sending 13,000 people fleeing. 90,000 people were forced to evacuate Evansville, IN. Seventy percent of Louisville, KY was inundated. The town of Paducah, Kentucky was deserted in the face of the rising water.
1944 - Damaging ice storm from Texas to Mississippi caused $18 million in damage.
1950 - The Seattle-Tacoma area was hit by a major blizzard that dumped up to fifty inches of snow in some areas and dropped temperatures to below zero. Thirteen people died in the storm that paralyzed parts of eastern Washington, northern Idaho and Oregon. 21.4 inches of snow fell at the SEA-TAC airport.
1952 - During the first days of 1952,the Southern Pacific Railroad found itself battling a series of fierce winter snow storms that threatened all train operations. Their flagship passenger train, the Streamliner City of San Francisco finally set out over the Sierras on this date. The train became trapped in an avalanche. It would take three cold, long days to free the 226 passengers.
1964 - Williamsport, PA was buried under twenty four inches of snow. Nineteen inches fell in Nantucket, MA and Scranton, PA.
1972 - An elementary school in suburban Atlanta was struck by lightning, sparking a fire. The students had to evacuate the building into the raging storm.
1982 - A major winter storm spread snow, sleet and freezing rain across the South, from Texas to South Carolina. The temperature plunged to -5F in Atlanta, GA. Major damage was reported to agricultural and citrus crops in southern Florida.
1982 - Air Florida Flight 90 crashed onto the Fourteenth Street Bridge and into the icy Potomac River during a terrible blizzard in Washington, DC. Ice build up on the wings caused the plane to crash right after takeoff. Only five of the seventy-nine people aboard survived.
1996 - The eastern half of Pennsylvania was reeling under its heaviest snow cover in memory. The area around the state capital had nearly four feet of snow on the ground. Parts of the northern Susquehanna Valley had nearly five feet of snow cover. Six days later, most of the snow would melt and combine with an unseasonably warm rainstorm to produce the worst flooding since Hurricane Eloise in 1975.
1997 - In Utah, an estimated four thousand skiers and snowboarders were home after being stranded for much of the weekend. Two feet of fresh snow and several avalanches had blocked the highway to the Snowbird and Alta ski resorts for two days.
1997 - A winter storm spread freezing rain over much of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana., knocking out power to over 100,000 people. One unexpected side effect of the ice storm was a pronounced baby boom nine months later in area hospitals.
1997 - Weather observers at Lake Charles, LA had to run across the runway at the airport to chip thick ice off of the anemometer when the dial in their office showed calm winds despite a stiff southeast breeze. .
2000 - Snow finally fell in Boston MA, ending the longest snow less streak in the city’s history at 304 days. It was also the latest start to a snow season in Beantown.
2002 - Packer Fans in Green Bay only had one complaint about the weather as their beloved team lined up to play the 49ers in an NFL Playoff game at Lambeau Field. It was too warm. Game time temperatures were in the upper 20s, nothing like the –13 at the Ice Bowl in 1967 when Green Bay hosted Dallas.

PRETTY WINTERY SETUP IF YOU ASK ME AND NEWS2 WKRN

2008-01-13T17:24:00.000-08:00

60% Chance of snow 4 days out are you kidding me???

2008-01-13T13:52:00.001-08:00

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. West northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 22. North wind around 5 mph becoming east southeast.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South southeast wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Friday: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 35.

THIS TO ME IS INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST

2008-01-12T19:08:00.000-08:00

THIS LOW IM SEEING OVER ARKANSAS LOOKS MORE POTENT THAN I THOUGHT.. WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS?

JAMES SPANN JAN 8TH PM BLOG

2008-01-08T18:28:00.000-08:00

This storms bark looks worse than its bite

2008-01-08T04:08:00.000-08:00

With The Low shifting to the NE I do not see any major Severe Outbreak here. I do still imagine we will have some kind of squall line event which may touch off a few Severe warnings but that's about it. There are just not enough dynamics to have a major severe event. It will be a Windy day though with SW winds 20-25 with Gusts to 35 so hold on to your hats. As far a Temps I believe the 69 degree record is in jeopardy. Ill be back tonight with a recap of events. Have a good day!!!!

STORM REPORTS SO FAR TODAY

2008-01-07T15:00:00.001-08:00

8 TORNADO REPORTS AS OF THIS POSTING

OK THE SITE IS NOW SET THE WAY I WANT IT

2008-01-07T14:28:00.000-08:00

SORRY FOR ALL THE CHANGES AS I KICK THIS SITE INTO HIGH GEAR. I DO NOT HAVE THE BEST SITE BUT I DO WANT TO BE JUST ONE MORE FORUM TO TURN TO FOR WEATHER DISCUSSIONS. PLEASE LEAVE ME YOUR FEEDBACK AS TO WHAT I CAN DO TO IMPROVE THIS BLOG. I WAS OFF FROM WORK TODAY SO I HAD ALOT OF FREE TIME TO WORK ON IT BUT FROM THIS POINT FORWARD I USUALLY WILL UPDATE THE SITE 2 TIMES A DAY AND RESPOND TO YOUR COMMENTS. THANK YOU ALL AGAIN FOR ALL OF YOUR SUPPORT ON MY 1sT EVER BLOG PAGE :) !!!!

TORNADO WATCHES OUT FOR MISSOURI, ILLINOIS

2008-01-07T12:55:00.001-08:00

A possible sign of things to come tomorrow. I do not think we will have a Major Outbreak of Tornadoes with this storm as the upper air dynamics will be too far to the North by the Time the front swings through. Looks like a late afternoon Squall Line will form.. So for the Naysayers that think I jump on the "Severe Wx Bandwagon" Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!

JAMES SPANN LATEST WEATHER BLOG

2008-01-07T08:33:00.001-08:00

THIS IS JANUARY @ 5am?????

2008-01-07T03:50:00.001-08:00

ASUS44 KMEG 071120
RWRTN
TENNESSEE HOURLY STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
500 AM CST MON JAN 07 2008

TNZ002-004-019-021-049-052-054-088>092-071200-
WEST TENNESSEE

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MEMPHIS INTL CLOUDY 64 60 87 S9 30.10R
NWS MEMPHIS N/A 64 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MILLINGTON CLOUDY 63 59 88 S10 30.09R
JACKSON CLOUDY 63 58 83 S9 30.11R
DYERSBURG CLOUDY 64 57 77 S12G20 30.08S
SOMERVILLE MOCLDY 64 60 87 S12 30.11R
COVINGTON CLOUDY 63 60 90 S10 30.09R
UNION CITY CLOUDY 61 57 86 E14 30.06R
BOLIVAR CLOUDY 61 56 83 NE10 30.11R
PARIS CLOUDY 61 57 86 E12 30.11R
HUNTINGDON CLOUDY 62 58 87 NE10 30.11R
CAMDEN N/A 62 59 91 S12 N/A
LEXINGTON CLOUDY 62 57 83 NE14 30.13R
SILERTON N/A 61 58 90 SW12 N/A
SELMER MOCLDY 60 55 83 S8 30.13S
SAVANNAH MOCLDY 58 52 80 E10 30.16S
$$

TNZ008-025-027-028-033-062-065-066-071200-
NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
NASHVILLE CLOUDY 57 52 82 S9 30.19R
DICKSON CLOUDY 59 51 74 S13 30.14R
PORTLAND PTCLDY 58 52 80 NE15 30.16R
CLARKSVILLE CLOUDY 63 55 77 S10 30.13R
SMYRNA MOCLDY 60 52 75 S9 30.20R
MURFREESBORO PTCLDY 58 50 75 S12 30.19S
COOKEVILLE CLOUDY 55 47 74 S7 30.23S
GALLATIN MOCLDY 59 52 77 S3 30.20R
CROSSVILLE CLOUDY 54 47 77 S8 30.27R

Ingredients Coming together for a Severe Weather Event

2008-01-07T03:30:00.000-08:00

Well I wrote a blog last night and cancelled it and now I wish I didnt because in it I wrote that I thought the SPC Did not put the Slight risk zone far enough North into TN where the Dynamics were much better for Tues.. But check this puppy out!!!!! I Believe it will be more of a Squall Line event rather than super Cell Outbreak which means straight line wind damage if anything..However The SPC is mentioning te Chance of some Super Cell Activity ahead of the main Squall line... Stay tuned!!!!!

SPC AC 070552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SUN JAN 06 2008

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...

MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY WHILE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WITH SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...INITIAL SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE MI/LOWER MI WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER IL/IND. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TO THE S OF THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE...WITH THIS BOUNDARY RAPIDLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SRN
EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG WITH A
SLOWER...MORE SWWD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...OH VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS
AMPLIFIED CHARACTER TO ABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH. MOREOVER...
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A NWD SHIFT IN A PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THEREFORE... CONSIDERABLE
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS FORECAST SINCE THE PRIOR DAY THREE
ISSUANCE.

CURRENT GOES SOUNDER IPW LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY BEEN
ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SRN
GREAT LAKES WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND 50 F
DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS CNTRL LOWER MI. PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN SIMILAR BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AIR MASS BECOMING AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR FROM PORTIONS OF IL/IND SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT. POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH AS DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION BEGIN TO
ACT ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT RAPIDLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND AND WRN
PARTS OF KY/TN. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO PARTS OF OH...CNTRL/ERN KY AND
MIDDLE TN...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
BE QUITE SMALL AND ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.

THIS IS THE NWS VIEW FOR THE WEEK

2008-01-06T19:14:00.000-08:00

Tonight: Isolated sprinkles after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tuesday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. High near 69. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Southwest wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north northwest. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southeast.

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. West southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.

THE VERY LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

2008-01-06T12:32:00.000-08:00

Well the GFS now has no rain for the 1-12---1-19 period but instead throws us a bone in voodoo land ON JANUARY 21ST!!!!

Well the GFS now has no rain for the 1-12---1-19 period but instead throws us a bone in voodoo land ON JANUARY 21ST!!!!

BRIAN PETERS WEEKEND UPDATE FROM ABC 33/40

2008-01-06T09:15:00.000-08:00

Lets talk about the Tues Night/Early Wed Storm

2008-01-06T05:51:00.000-08:00

All of the models are in excellent agreement that we will have our next decent shot of rain here in mid tn on tuesday night.. We have had a nice southerly breeze for a couple of days now and that will continue leading into tuesday nights event. I feel it will get Windier than it has been but im not hooked on the idea of a severe weather event. Since this looks to be an overnight event I just dont see enough instability to see more than a few rumbles of thunder here or there. The better dynamics will be well to the north of us with the low pressure center moving past the great lakes. We will see anywhere from .25 to 1 inch of rain out of this event though. Behind the front our winds will remain out of the West and not fully go Northwest and in fact will shift back to the Southwest so I dont expect any major cold weather behind this front.

Getting Closer to reality and Away from VOODOO Land

2008-01-06T05:22:00.000-08:00

THE 06z Run from Hour 174-196 Shows that Middle TN should finally get the long overdue Snow that we so greatly Deserve. Since it is like 7am right now and Im only half awake I will work on this more later as more models come out .. Click on any of these maps to see The future event unfolding.