SEVERE WX RADAR LOOP FROM SUPER TUESDAY STORM

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY

A severe weather outbreak is likely tonight through tomorrow from the eastern Southern Plains east to the Mississippi River Valley (Southern IL southward). The models have been trending slower and slower with this system with each consecutive run, with the WRF now forecasting the dryline to cross the I-35 corridor late tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Therefore, the severe weather threat for today will hold off until after dark when the upper-level support arrives. Beginning early tomorrow afternoon, or even late tonight, the threat for tornadoes will increase dramatically over Northeast TX, East OK, and AR as supercells become surface-based. Given 0-1 km helicity values of 200+ m2/s2 over the entire warm sector, these tornadoes could be strong and long-track (especially with the fast storm motions). Selected WRF forecast panels for 00z tomorrow are displayed below.




As is commonly the case with this type of event, the core of the LLJ and the best low-level shear will be slightly east of the dryline and the best instability, as can be seen in the CAPE and 850 mb forecasts above. However, this area still has little or no capping inversion despite lesser CAPE, and is still supportive of strong tornadoes. A likely scenario for tomorrow's severe weather event is the development of two bands of supercells: one over Arkansas and northern Louisiana along a pre-frontal confluence line early in the afternoon, and a second along the dryline further west across eastern Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas. The eastern supercells will likely have the highest potential of producing long-track strong tornadoes given the very high 0-1 km helicity values, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out along the dryline as well. The dryline storms will also move rapidly eastward into the higher low-level shear as the day progresses, anyway, so either target seems logical from a storm chasing perspective





A moderate risk was issued last night by the Storm Prediction Center in their Day 2 Outlook over the southern MS River Valley and eastward, but this area will definitely be shifted significantly west in the next outlook -- probably including most of AR and maybe even Eastern OK and Northeast TX. We'll definitely be chasing this event, and will keep you updated as more model runs become available!

TUESDAY EVENT LOOKING VERY INTERESTING

Picture what happened last week only now picture it with SuperCell Thunderstorms capable of producing Tornadoes and Large hail Before the Squall Line even hits. This is what we are looking at for This Tuesday Folks. As Much as I hate to say Tornadoes they are quite possible. Now is the time to review your severe wx plan. Stay tuned on Tuesday to Radio or TV. I will have a detailed report tomorrow evening with Helocity values Cape Values and all the info needed to weather the Storm..

TUESDAYS SEVERE WX OUTLOOK

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA/AR/SERN MO EWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND
THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH 06/12Z. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WINDS...INCLUDING A SSWLY H8 JET IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND H5 FLOW WELL
IN EXCESS OF 100 KT IN THE JET CORE AND AS HIGH AS 90 KT ATOP THE
WARM SECTOR.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF ERN OK SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 06/12Z.

...LA/AR/SERN MO/OH VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THIS REGION.

STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
MAINTAINS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
AS FAR N AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/. WHILE STORMS ARE
FORECAST WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- BOTH WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWS ALONG
THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL AS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE. THEREFORE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED --
WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST
NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE OH VALLEY.

WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AS FRONT APPROACHES AFTER DARK...GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS MAY SUPPORT A PERSISTENT SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HOW COLD DOES THIS LOOK???

Today in Weather History

Welcome to Today In Weather History for Sunday, January 27, 2008.
On this day in weather history ..


1772 - The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1966 - Oswego, NY, was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Residents of Chicago, IL, began to dig out from a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum)

1989 - The last half of January was bitterly cold over most of Alaska. Nearly thirty stations established all-time record low temperatures. On this date Tanana reported a low of -76 degrees. Daily highs of -66 degrees were reported at Chandalar Lake on the 22nd, and at Ambler on the 26th. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm moving into the western U.S. produced 13 inches of snow at Daggett Pass NV, and 16 inches in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Reno NV, and wind gusts in Oregon exceeded 80 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The nation got a breather from winter storms, however, cold arctic air settled into the southeastern U.S. Hollywood FL reported a record low reading of 39 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Low pressure in north central Alaska continued to direct air across northern Siberia and the edges of the Arctic Circle into the state. The temperature at Fairbanks remained colder than 40 degrees below zero for the eighth day in a row. Lows of 68 below at Galena, 74 below at McGrath, and 76 below at Tanana, were new records for the date. Wind chill readings were colder than 100 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to the northwestern U.S., and more heavy snow to some of the higher elevations. The series of vigorous cold fronts crossing the area between the 23rd and the 27th of the month produced up to 60 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Month-to-date snowfall at Boston Logan International Airport totaled 43.1 inches, making January the snowiest month on record.

nws discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW
GFS GUIDANCE INTO THE MID 20S AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EWD THRU THE
GULF STATES. SLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPS IN THE NRN PLAINS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PUSH BACK INTO THE MID STATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY FROZEN
PRECIP EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WELL NORTH IN THE GREAT LAKES.

SFC RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH SELY FLOW
RETURNING LATE WED NGT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WED NGT AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MIDSTATE ON THU EVE.
RAIN AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...HOWEVER...
GFS PROG INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE GULF COAST...THUS WOULD EXPECT ONLY ELEVATED THUNDER.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...THUS NO
EXPECTATION(BASED ON CURRENT PROGS) OF FROZEN PRECIP. SFC RIDGE
MOVES IN WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH SAT NGT.